Poker Hand Statistics Texas Holdem

  

Just-for-Fun Texas Hold’em odds. If you’re holding a pair, the flop will bring you four of a kind about 1 in 119 tries, or 0.84% of the time. The odds are 70.5 to 1 (1.4%) that no one at the table has an Ace or a King at a 10-handed table. The odds are 87,897 to 1 (0.01%) that you will not be dealt an Ace or a pair for 50 hands. Jul 02, 2008 Find the best starting poker hands. Learn about poker starting hands and holdem starting hands. Get free tips on Texas hold em.

What are the odds? As a poker player, that’s the first thing you should ask. Here some key numbers to get your play off the ground.

The chances of getting a top starting hand (of double aces, picture pairs or A-K suited), is a minute 2.1%. Hold out for one of these and you’ll never get started.

If you've got a flush draw (one card short of a full flush) after the flop, you'll make your hand 34.97% of the time. That's just over a third.

Don't play any two cards just because they're suited. It only improves your hand by 2.5%.

The chance of one of your hole cards making a pair on the flop is 32.43%, or about a third.

By the river, your chances of making a pair go up to roughly a half.

If you flop an open-ended straight draw this gives you eight outs (eight possible cards that will complete the hand), so you'll hit your hand by the river 31.5% of the time. Just make sure you're getting pot odds (the value of the pot versus the value of your bet) to see the next card.

If you already have a pair, the odds of flopping a set (three of a kind) are only 7.5/1 – so make sure you only play small pairs cheaply, and only if the pot is worth it.

Rarely worth drawing to, with the turn and river cards to come you'll hit your gutshot straight (four outs) approximately 9% of the time.

When two pairs go head to head, the bigger pair will win roughly 80% of the time (or four times out of five). So if you’ve got queens, and see a bet, raise and re-raise in front of you, you might be up against aces, kings, or possibly both. Time to fold.

If you need two exact cards on the turn and river, the chance of getting them both is only 0.3%. If you get one, there's a 4.55% chance of getting the other.

A pair against two overcards is often called a coin-flip or race, because they each win about half the time. If the overcards are suited, the pair will win 46%-54% of the time, if not, 48%-57% of the time.

If your top card matches the other person's, but your kicker is smaller (for example, queen against either ace or king, you’ve only got a 24% chance of winning (or about one in four).

People talk about middle suited connectors being better than aces, because of the straight and flush possibilities. But if you're holding the aces, don't panic – the over-pair will beat the suited connectors approximately 80% of the time.

It might not feel like it, but you'll be dealt a pocket pair on average once every 17 hands, or about 6% of the time.

There's a reason for folding low hands. Even if they’re suited, the chance of flopping a flush is only 0.8% – or 124/1.

The probability of flopping two-pair (from non-paired hole cards) is about 2%.

If you do get two pair on the flop, the chances of making at least a full house by the river is 16.74%.

But if you flop three-of-a-kind, the odds of making a full house or better by the river go up to 33.4%, or one in three.

You bluffed with random cards to steal the blinds and were called by A-K. Oops! Actually, your random lower cards will win about 35% of the time.

Pocket jacks is known as a big danger hand in Texas Hold’em. It may look good, but the chances of a higher card turning up on the flop is 52%, giving your ‘fish-hooks’ less than half a chance of survival.

A pair of aces is the best pre-flop hand in Texas Hold'em Poker

In the poker game of Texas hold 'em, a starting hand consists of two hole cards, which belong solely to the player and remain hidden from the other players. Five community cards are also dealt into play. Betting begins before any of the community cards are exposed, and continues throughout the hand. The player's 'playing hand', which will be compared against that of each competing player, is the best 5-card poker hand available from his two hole cards and the five community cards. Unless otherwise specified, here the term hand applies to the player's two hole cards, or starting hand.

  • 2Limit hand rankings

Essentials[edit]

There are 1326 distinct possible combinations of two hole cards from a standard 52-card deck in hold 'em, but since suits have no relative value in this poker variant, many of these hands are identical in value before the flop. For example, AJ and AJ are identical in value, because each is a hand consisting of an ace and a jack of the same suit.

Therefore, there are 169 non-equivalent starting hands in hold 'em, which is the sum total of : 13 pocket pairs, 13 × 12 / 2 = 78 suited hands and 78 unsuited hands (13 + 78 + 78 = 169).

These 169 hands are not equally likely. Hold 'em hands are sometimes classified as having one of three 'shapes':


  • Pairs, (or 'pocket pairs'), which consist of two cards of the same rank (e.g. 99). One hand in 17 will be a pair, each occurring with individual probability 1/221 (P(pair) = 3/51 = 1/17).

An alternative means of making this calculation

First Step As confirmed above.

There are 2652 possible combination of opening hand.

Second Step

There are 6 different combos of each pair. 9h9c, 9h9s, 9h9d, 9c9s, 9c9d, 9d9s

Poker Hand Statistics Texas Holdem Table

Poker Hand Statistics Texas Holdem

To calculate the odds of being dealt a pair

2652 (possible opening hands) divided by 12 (the number of any particular pair being dealt. As above)

2652/12 = 221


  • Suited hands, which contain two cards of the same suit (e.g. A6). Four hands out of 17 will be suited, and each suited configuration occurs with probability 2/663 (P(suited) = 12/51 = 4/17).
  • Offsuit hands, which contain two cards of a different suit and rank (e.g. KJ). Twelve out of 17 hands will be nonpair, offsuit hands, each of which occurs with probability 2/221 (P(offsuit non-pair) = 3*(13-1)/51 = 12/17).

It is typical to abbreviate suited hands in hold 'em by affixing an 's' to the hand, as well as to abbreviate non-suited hands with an 'o' (for offsuit). That is,

QQ represents any pair of queens,
KQ represents any king and queen,
AKo represents any ace and king of different suits, and
JTs represents any jack and ten of the same suit.

There are 25 starting hands with a probability of winning at a 10-handed table of greater than 1/7.[1]

Limit hand rankings[edit]

Some notable theorists and players have created systems to rank the value of starting hands in limit Texas hold'em. These rankings do not apply to no limit play.

Sklansky hand groups[edit]

David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth[2] assigned in 1999 each hand to a group, and proposed all hands in the group could normally be played similarly. Stronger starting hands are identified by a lower number. Hands without a number are the weakest starting hands. As a general rule, books on Texas hold'em present hand strengths starting with the assumption of a nine or ten person table. The table below illustrates the concept:

Chen formula[edit]

Poker Hand Percentages Texas Holdem

The 'Chen Formula' is a way to compute the 'power ratings' of starting hands that was originally developed by Bill Chen.[3]

Highest Card
Based on the highest card, assign points as follows:
Ace = 10 points, K = 8 points, Q = 7 points, J = 6 points.
10 through 2, half of face value (10 = 5 points, 9 = 4.5 points, etc.)
Pairs
For pairs, multiply the points by 2 (AA=20, KK=16, etc.), with a minimum of 5 points for any pair. 55 is given an extra point (i.e., 6).
Suited
Add 2 points for suited cards.
Closeness
Subtract 1 point for 1 gappers (AQ, J9)
2 points for 2 gappers (J8, AJ).
4 points for 3 gappers (J7, 73).
5 points for larger gappers, including A2 A3 A4
Add an extra point if connected or 1-gap and your highest card is lower than Q (since you then can make all higher straights)

Phil Hellmuth's: 'Play Poker Like the Pros'[edit]

Phil Hellmuth's 'Play Poker Like the Pros' book published in 2003.

Poker Hand Statistics Texas Holdem Free

TierHandsCategory
1AA, KK, AKs, QQ, AKTop 12 Hands
2JJ, TT, 99
388, 77, AQs, AQ
466, 55, 44, 33, 22, AJs, ATs, A9s, A8sMajority Play Hands
5A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, KQs, KQ
6QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65sSuited Connectors

Statistics based on real online play[edit]

Statistics based on real play with their associated actual value in real bets.[4]

TierHandsExpected Value
1AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs2.32 - 0.78
2AQs, TT, AK, AJs, KQs, 990.59 - 0.38
3ATs, AQ, KJs, 88, KTs, QJs0.32 - 0.20
4A9s, AJ, QTs, KQ, 77, JTs0.19 - 0.15
5A8s, K9s, AT, A5s, A7s0.10 - 0.08
6KJ, 66, T9s, A4s, Q9s0.08 - 0.05
7J9s, QJ, A6s, 55, A3s, K8s, KT0.04 - 0.01
898s, T8s, K7s, A2s0.00
987s, QT, Q8s, 44, A9, J8s, 76s, JT(-) 0.02 - 0.03

Nicknames for starting hands[edit]

In poker communities, it is common for hole cards to be given nicknames. While most combinations have a nickname, stronger handed nicknames are generally more recognized, the most notable probably being the 'Big Slick' - Ace and King of the same suit, although an Ace-King of any suit combination is less occasionally referred to as an Anna Kournikova, derived from the initials AK and because it 'looks really good but rarely wins.'[5][6] Hands can be named according to their shapes (e.g., paired aces look like 'rockets', paired jacks look like 'fish hooks'); a historic event (e.g., A's and 8's - dead man's hand, representing the hand held by Wild Bill Hickok when he was fatally shot in the back by Jack McCall in 1876); many other reasons like animal names, alliteration and rhyming are also used in nicknames.

Notes[edit]

  1. ^No-Limit Texas Hold'em by Angel Largay
  2. ^David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth (1999). Hold 'em Poker for Advanced Players. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN1-880685-22-1
  3. ^Hold'em Excellence: From Beginner to Winner by Lou Krieger, Chapter 5, pages 39 - 43, Second Edition
  4. ^http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker-school/ev-stats/total-stats-by-card/
  5. ^Aspden, Peter (2007-05-19). 'FT Weekend Magazine - Non-fiction: Stakes and chips Las Vegas and the internet have helped poker become the biggest game in town'. Financial Times. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
  6. ^Martain, Tim (2007-07-15). 'A little luck helps out'. Sunday Tasmanian. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
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